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With output halved and demand skyrocketing, can copper become the king of commodities in 2019?

AddTime:2019-03-05 08:23:58   Views:    Source:Changjiang nonferrous metal net    【 Big Mid Small 】   Print   Close

It is reported that investment banks have raised their expectations on copper price in this quarter, boosted by factors such as China US trade agreement, weak dollar and rising market sentiment.
Barclays Bank, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are all optimistic about the copper price in 2019. Morgan Stanley said that the copper price will rise 14% this year.
Barclays said in a report released yesterday that it was surprised by the strength of copper prices. By the end of the quarter, copper prices averaged more than $6000 a tonne.
According to the report, the bank's forecast price for the first quarter will be raised from $5800 / ton to $6120 / ton. At the same time, he said that the possibility of a sudden fall in copper prices caused by changes in market sentiment was not ruled out.
An important factor in boosting copper prices is the supply of copper, which is expected to decrease this year.
In Africa, where copper production is high, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have both raised taxes on the industry. In response to additional taxes, fqm announced plans to cut jobs; vedantax's smelter in Zambia will cut production; and Glencore said it would consider halving production at its mutanda mine in Congo. Supply from Indonesia's copper mine, Grasberg, is declining. In addition, in 2018, the shutdown and overhaul of overseas smelting plants such as Sterlite, pasar, chuiquicamata, etc. resulted in the narrowing of refined copper supply.
The price rise is also due to rising middle class consumption in developing countries, as well as demand for renewable energy, such as wind and solar, which will boost demand for copper in the future.
In the United States, from 2017 to 2018, the procurement of renewable energy by enterprises more than doubled, and Facebook alone consumed 2.6 gigawatts of renewable energy in one year.
With the collective production reduction of foreign mines and the increase of global consumer demand for copper, the copper price in 2019 is likely to have a relatively strong rebound. However, there are still many uncertainties in the long-term trend of copper price before the trade friction is settled.
[source to be retained for reprint - Changjiang nonferrous metal net]
[title] with production halved and demand skyrocketing, can copper become the king of commodities in 2019?
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